Thursday, September 8, 2011

Apple forecast to sell 143M iPhones, 68M iPads in 2013

Investment firm Piper Jaffray on Wednesday released their calendar year 2013 estimates for Apple, forecasting $164 billion in revenue with earnings per share of $40.50 on sales of well over 200 million iOS devices.




Analyst Gene Munster's estimates are 8 percent ahead of Wall Street's 2013 expectations for revenue, and 10 percent higher than the Street's earnings per share forecast. Munster sees Apple's revenue growing 19 percent in calendar year 2012 and another 17 percent in 2013.

He also sees Apple's cash hoard continuing to grow over the next few years, reaching $140 per share at the end of 2013, compared to $81 per share in June 2011.

Apple's growth will continue to be propelled by the iPhone, in Piper Jaffray's estimates, representing 49 percent of revenue in calendar 2013. Their model has iPhone growth go from 30 percent in calendar 2012 to 29 percent in 2013, while average selling price will drop from $603 in 2012 to $565 in 2013.

"One key topic on which we are different than consensus thinking is our belief that the iPhone unit growth can continue in the 30% range while ASP's will be more than double the smartphone industry average," Munster wrote.

"In other words, we do not believe Apple needs an ultra low end offering to grow iPhone units at 30%. If Apple was to announce an unsubsidized, sub-$200 iPhone, our unit estimates would be too low and ASPs would be too hight."

Rumors of a new, contract-free entry-level iPhone have persisted for years, particularly on Wall Street where investors believe such a move would be a key growth driver for Apple. Even this year, rumors have cropped up, suggesting Apple is working on a new low-end model to fight off cheap Android handsets.




As for the iPad, Munster sees the touchscreen tablet representing 21 percent of Apple's revenue in calendar year 2013, with sales of 68 million units. He sees iPad unit sales growing 39 percent in 2012 and 35 percent in 2013, while the average selling price will drop from $575 to $555.

And for the Mac platform, Munster has forecast it to earn 16 percent of Apple's revenue in 2013 with sales of 23 million Macs that year. Average selling prices will drop from $1,257 in 2012 to $1,175 in 2013, while growth rate will shrink from 17 percent to 15 percent in the next two years, based on Piper Jaffray's models.

The firm has reiterated its overweight rating on shares of AAPL, and sees the company remaining a "top pick" for investors through 2013. Piper Jaffray's 12-month price target for the stock is $607.

24 comments:

  1. Mind = blown. Mother of God, that's INSANE. I dont think they pulled that number out of their asses, they look optimistic, but what do i know?

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  2. I won't be part of that number if I can help it.

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  3. interesting
    thanks for sharing this with us
    great post

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  4. Eventhough the numbers are really HUGE, it's Apple. Perhaps they will even sell more!

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  5. Wow. All I can say is wow. These are massive numbers. I really wish I could own shares in Apple right now, lol!

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  6. sometimes I think Im the only person that boycotts apple products because I prefer substance over style

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  7. I won't be one of those Apple-addicts-brainwashed-hipsters.

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  8. these all seem like nice robot companions, but I must ask, can you have sex with them?

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  9. thats crazy! interesting post
    +follow

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  10. This is the proof that Apple is one of the big players in the economic world!

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  11. say no to apple products, support Linux forever :D

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  12. That's crazy, why does everyone want to have the newest apple product?

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  13. That's impressive. Seriously retarded numbers. Im not an apple fan, i dont even like how overpriced their products are, but you gotta give em some credit.

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  14. That is a lot. Hope they make good quality things.

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  15. I wonder if apple will keep going as strong since jobs left the company? It will be interesting to see the new figures..

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  16. They have pretty high expectations. Interesting blog+followed

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  17. That's why Apple is one of the most valuable companies in the world. Keep convincing people they need the newest version of whatever they come out with. Interesting blog. +1 following

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  18. I always wonder what apple has done to pull in so many consumers, really interested in what the future holds for them.

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  19. I think it's articles and analysis like these that raise extra attention to companies. people hear about stuff like this and think they should buy it too.

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